GREG HALLAM: Our last two conservative governments have been one and done – will this one be any different?
Will the next State Government be a one term or three-term government. It’s a fair question to contemplate, writes Greg Hallam
In the closing days of the 2024 State election campaign discussion has emerged as to whether a Crisafulli Government will go the way of the last two conservative state governments, gone after one term.
Alternatively, that they parlay Saturday’s certain victory into a 2028 win, then get a bonus third term in the immediate afterglow of the 2032 Olympics .
Bearing in mind that state government terms in Queensland are now four years, not the three years that applies to the Federal Parliament. Put another way, two terms is eight years , while three successive terms is 12 years.
I reckon that the odds for a three term LNP Government are worth a wager; certainly possible, I posit, probable.
There is no doubt that the modern Queensland Labor Party is resilient and some. Moreover, that they are master campaigners in Opposition.
They have shown that capability for decades, turfing their opponents out twice just after three years in office.
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They will have enough talent in their surviving MLAs to come up with a presentable Shadow Cabinet. Undoubtedly, they will have left the incoming government with some “ poison pills” to deal with, especially taxation matters and cost of living subsidies.
Let alone David Crisafulli’s self-imposed dictum to resign if crime numbers don’t fall by the end of the next parliament.
The ALP could also benefit from possible schisms in an LNP Government around reproductive rights, voluntary assisted dying, climate change and nuclear energy, and leadership ambitions.
Labor might also benefit in a perverse way from a Dutton Federal Government. With punters raising eyebrows about saturation conservative governments, and a state LNP administration having no one else to blame .
That said, the new Crisafulli Government will have a decent parliamentary seat buffer to govern comfortably, and be able to focus on sandbagging those seats over the next four years .
They also will have the benefit of the so called Sophomore Swing, where first term members get a bonus kick along at their second election attempt.
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Add to the mix the fact that at least eight members of the new LNP Cabinet will have previous ministerial experience, so it shouldn’t be a rabble, and the “settling in “period should overcome the resumption of parliament in February 2025 .
As my colleague David Fagan has recently opined, there is a decent coterie of experienced public service leaders available to serve and task-hardened ministerial staffers at the ready to help steer the ship of state.
A long term of state government awaits the LNP if they can govern well and wisely .
Casting our minds forward four years , let alone eight years is fraught with danger with all sort of possible scenarios, involving possible recessions , technology revolutions, huge climate-related disasters and god forbid further global virus outbreaks .
One thing that is for sure though, is that a successful Brisbane 2032 Olympics and Para Olympics will give an incumbent state government a mighty head start.
Being turfed out in the afterglow of a successful games , just two months prior is a long-odds bet.
A win this Saturday might just be the start of a 12-year term of office for the LNP – at least a foot in the door..
Happy polling day Saturday and go the democracy sausages.
Mustard not sauce , of course.
