All the scenarios for the election like no other
After months of campaigning and drama, the United States has finally gone to the polls to decide its next President.
Joe Biden bowing out and Kamala Harris replacing him completely reshaped a race that had Democrats struggling in the polls early, with the reinvigorated party quickly coalescing around the current Vice President.
Tim Walz’s ascent to the Vice Presidential nominee could prove to be a masterstroke by the Harris campaign too: He remains the most popular of the four candidates from the Republican and Democratic presidential tickets.
Trump’s pick for VP, JD Vance, has made several blunders on the campaign trail and has been heavily criticised over his stance on abortion and commentary on women who choose not to have children.
The campaign’s past two weeks have been hugely consequential: Former staff have spoken up against Trump and his authoritarianism, while his rallies have seen a huge drop in attendance and energy.
If he does lose Pennsylvania by a slim margin, there will be a huge inquest into the impact of a comedian and his racist joke about Puerto Rico.
You might like
The Harris campaign, in contrast, has embraced the fight for reproductive rights as a central pillar of its campaign, reclaiming the freedom catchcry and American patriotism along the way.
The possibilities
Three scenarios remain once voting is over: A swift Harris win, Trump reclaiming the White House, or it remaining too close to call.
If Trump is successful, he will become the oldest president in history, taking the mantle from Biden.
Stay informed, daily
Although he has attempted to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, many of his senior advisers helped pen the plan that would upend America and reshape it into a conservative Christian nation.
It involves turning American institutions like the Department of Justice, FBI, and Department of Homeland Security into partisan vehicles of power, while abolishing the Department of Education and completely criminalising abortion.
He has promised to only be a dictator “on day one” and has floated the idea of pursuing his enemies from the White House, with the Supreme Court-mandated immunity to back him up.
Harris victory
A Harris win is both a historic first – America has never had a woman as president, or a candidate as diverse – and a continuation of the status quo that is the Biden administration.
Turnout by women and white voters appears to be the clearest path to victory for a campaign that had only 100 days to go from crawling to sprinting, but the closing polls have Harris as a slight favourite in a race that is tighter than any in recent history.
Stalemate
The final election day scenario is that neither candidate has the electoral votes required – 270 – until days after the election, creating a vacuum for legal, political and violent attempts to subvert the election.
The weight and vigour of post-election day legal challenges will depend on how close the result is: If either candidate runs away with it, it will likely ensure a much smoother road to certification.
Polling will close at different times in different states throughout Wednesday across America, but voting centres in most key swing states – where the election will be won and lost – will have closed by 1pm AEDT.
Polls in Nevada will close at 2pm AEDT and results from swing states will start rolling in as votes are counted.
More than 70 million voters have already cast their votes, representing 44 per cent of the 2020 turnout, but the final polling booths in Alaska won’t close until 5pm AEDT.
When will we know the result?
Counting the votes will go long into the night, but it’s likely that a clear result won’t be known until the next day in America.
News organisations and election trackers did not declare Joe Biden’s victory until November 6 in 2020, two days after election day, when Decision Desk HQ declared he had reached 270 electoral votes by winning Pennsylvania.
As each state decides on how it counts the votes, there is always a chance that one candidate races ahead and watches as their lead is slowly chipped away because of whether in-person voting or mailing and early voting are counted first.
This is what happened in 2020 too: Trump led Biden during the early count after the Republican candidate told his supporters not to trust mail and early voting, but could only watch on as it evaporated over the next two days.
If neither candidate has electoral votes to declare themselves winner, counting will resume late into the night in Australia.
Will there be a concession?
Odds-on chances are that Trump never concedes defeat and claims victory, even as early as election night.
But with the former president no longer in charge and the Justice Department moving to secure the election, it may not have the same impact as it did in 2020.
Legal challenges have already been filed in preparation for a Kamala Harris victory by Republicans and – just like in 2020 – expect plenty of outrage from Trump and his supporters between election day and the inauguration in January.
Trump incited his followers into protests and acts of political violence following his last defeat.
But with hefty prison sentences for his supporters, increased security and preparations already in place, it remains to be seen if he can muster the force and violence of January 6 again as he limps into election day.
If he is the winner, Harris has already said she will begrudgingly concede and ensure a peaceful transfer of power.
– TND
