PM’s election uncertainty as Cyclone Alfred intensifies
Cyclone Alfred has regained strength — intensifying from category one to category two — and is expected to change direction on Tuesday and start moving towards south-east Queensland.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
The first tropical cyclone to hit the state’s densely populated south-east corner in 50 years was about 560 kilometres east of Brisbane early on Tuesday.
BOM meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said Tuesday would bring the “critical point” when Alfred shifted from its south-easterly path and moved south-west towards the coast.
Updated tracking maps predict it will cross somewhere between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, 100 kilometres north of Brisbane, when it makes landfall on Thursday or early Friday.
The impact zone between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast is a densely populated region with mega-suburbs such as North Lakes and coastal cities including Redcliffe.
The watch zone extends all the way down past the Queensland-NSW border to Grafton, in the northern rivers region of NSW.
“In the lead-up, we’re going to see the wind and rain increasing, but even bigger than that, the coastal hazards will be increasing,” Bradbury told ABC’s News Breakfast.
“The hazardous surf, coast inundation and high tides are already having their impact on that stretch of the south-east Queensland coast.
“As the system crosses, that’s when we’ll see the biggest impacts.”
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She said waves could be up to to nine metres, with “extremely high and dangerous swells”.
Alfred was still moving south-east on Tuesday morning, but was expected to slow and turn west towards the Queensland coast later in the day.
“Alfred’s intensity may fluctuate between category one and two over the next few days, but it is forecast to cross the south-east Queensland coast at category two strength late on Thursday or early Friday morning,” a BOM warning said.
BOM has zeroed in on where Cyclone Alfred could make landfall. Photo: BOM
Election uncertainty
The cyclone’s anticipated arrival comes as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been mulling when to call a federal election.
The ABC reports Albanese had all but settled on triggering an April 12 election on Sunday or Monday.
But he now faces uncertainty with the potential impact and disruption from Cyclone Alfred.
Sources told the ABC a decision for an election in April, rather than May, hinged on whether the storm became too disruptive to justify taking the country to the polls within the next week.
Gale-force winds are expected to develop during Wednesday, with gusts of 120km/h.
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Damaging surf and abnormally high tides are set to create dangerous beach conditions, flooding and potential significant coastal erosion before Alfred hits from Thursday night.
Alfred will bring winds strong enough to bring down trees and power lines along with intense rainfall that may lead to “life threatening” flash flooding and a storm surge.
One-in-50-year cyclone
The last time a cyclone made a direct hit on south-east Queensland was in 1974 when Cyclone Zoe crossed at Coolangatta.
Zoe came just weeks after Cyclone Wanda had triggered record Brisbane floods that claimed 16 lives.
There have been some near misses since, with Nancy in 1990 and Oma in 2019.
Cyclones may have threatened the south-east before but an expert warned many more people and significant infrastructure would be “in the firing line” when Alfred hit.
“What we have seen since then (1974), particularly at places like the Gold Coast, is a significant amount of development on flood plains and along the coast,” Natural Hazards Research Australia CEO Andrew Gissing said.
“It could be a significant disaster event. We are right to be taking this seriously.”
People have been warned to leave or prepare for the worst, sparking panic buying in some areas. Others are busy sandbagging as they bunker down.
But Gissing was confident regions in Alfred’s path had enough time to prepare, potentially reducing damage and increasing safety as long as they took the cyclone risk seriously.
He said research after the 2022 floods that devastated Queensland and NSW showed 50 per cent of residents acknowledged that they could have been more prepared.
A cyclone watch has been issued from K’gari (Fraser Island) down to Grafton, NSW.
Alfred is expected to be downgraded to a tropical low by Friday. Rain and flooding dangers are expected to continue, possibly into the weekend.
Flood watches are current across south-east Queensland and NSW’s north-east.
