Australia faces the prospect of a minority government – what will it look like?
After the election, Australia is likely to have a minority government with the independents, who will hold the balance of power, negotiating each issue on its merits.
Democracy is best served if each independent politician states before the election which party they will support to form a government by guaranteeing supply.
For months, opinion polls have been almost unanimous that neither Labor nor the Coalition will win a majority of seats at the forthcoming election, which must be held sometime before mid-May.
That means that the Greens and the teal independents are likely to hold the balance of power. I further suspect that quite a lot of voters will welcome this election outcome.
Many of us are critical of the major parties because of their timidity and their refusal to deal adequately with key issues, such as climate change and the environment, administrative integrity and freedom of information, election funding, gambling, and tax reform.
It is these critics who will be inclined to support an independent instead of a candidate from a major party, in the expectation that if the government has to negotiate with the independents that will lead to better government.
You might like
But that still leaves the critical question of who will these independent members of the next Parliament support to form a government?
According to the ABC, “It means the power to decide who runs the country could end up in the hands of a few key MPs – and those independents by and large want to reserve the right to withdraw their support (though most specified stable government would also be a priority for them).”
Further, the ABC has reported that most of the current crossbench (19 members) say they “won’t strike formal agreements and instead will force Labor or the Coalition to deal with them bill by bill”.
Fair enough, but quite apart from these individual bills to introduce policies or to vary existing ones, there is an important question as to how the independents will determine their support for one of the major parties to form the government in the first place, when neither Labor nor the Coalition have a majority.
It is this government – which can call on the expertise of the public service and which will be best placed to take the initiative in introducing new legislation – that the independents will seek to influence.
Unless the independents take a stand on which of the two major parties should be asked to form a government, it is likely that the party with the greater number of seats in the next Parliament will be offered first chance to do so.
Stay informed, daily
Further, according to some opinion polls, it is most likely that the Coalition will win a greater number of seats, although not an outright majority. But do the independents want the Coalition to form the next government with whom they will then need to negotiate?
Instead, each of the independents and their supporters need to decide in advance which major party they want to form the next government with whom they would be most comfortable negotiating their future policy agenda.
Given the nature of the criticisms of the two major parties, summarised above, it seems more likely that a Labor government would better meet the expectations and demands of most independents.
For example, it is unlikely that someone passionate about climate change and the environment would want a government led by Peter Dutton to take over.
In that case, if Labor does not hold the largest number of seats in the next Parliament, they could still form a government if the independents, or a majority of the independents, agreed collectively that they would guarantee supply.
It is this capacity to pay for the ongoing government services that normally defines the power to form a government.
Any changes to policy or funding arrangements would then still be negotiated on a case-by-case basis between the government and the independents.
Finally, while it is understandable that independents may prefer to keep their powder dry and not inform the electorate in advance which major party they favour co-operating with as a government after the election, it is questionable whether that is in their interest or the public interest.
In fact, many of us, who are dissatisfied with the performance of the major parties and who are inclined to vote for an independent, may not abandon our traditional support for one or other of the major parties if we thought that the independent was most likely to support the option we most dislike.
So we want to know in advance during the election campaign which major party each independent will favour to form the next government, albeit with only the limited mandate of a supply guarantee.
Michael Keating is a former secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations. He is presently a visiting fellow at the Australian National University.
This article first appeared in Pearls and Irritations. Read the original here
