Is Peter Dutton going ‘full Trump’ mode?
An 8.20pm Christmas Day tweet from conservative commentator Rowan Dean was a reminder of where Sky After Dark pundits, the far right, and MAGA converts want Peter Dutton to take the federal election campaign: “Full Trump.”
It was the internet equivalent of an awkward post-lunch contribution from extended family (before nap time): A bit cringe, but everyone very keen to see where it goes.
But Dean’s prediction that Labor is finished, and his festive recommendation to the Opposition Leader, is not isolated or in any way haphazard.
Following Trump’s upgrade to version 2.0, there is increasing energy behind the idea that the US president-elect’s recipe for electoral success may be a winner for the Coalition in 2025.
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What does “full Trump” mean exactly, and can it really be applied in Australia?
It’s difficult to define. The president-elect continually reinvents the boundaries of political discourse. He’s managed to stay ahead of outrage fatigue by escalating his rhetoric and behaviour. Dutton, by contrast, operates in a political system that punishes unpredictability. In pushing division, he must be careful not to tread on the wrong wire and trigger alarm with centrist voters who will generally reject the really weird stuff.
The Dutton-led Coalition already has some uncanny resemblance to a MAGA-style populist party. Dutton quickly positioned himself as a defender of ordinary “forgotten Australians” against elites, leant on hot-button culture war issues, and made insinuations about “rigged” voting process in the lead-up to the referendum on the Indigenous Voice. He’s even got Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, on the stage.
While it is easy to ridicule this approach, I believe the Opposition Leader may have thought more deeply about it than we might expect. It seems he’s calculated some guardrails to avoid it all backfiring.
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Dutton cannot rely on mobilising the conservative base to win government. Australia’s compulsory voting system means an aggressive polarising approach can alienate large groups of voters.
Abortion, for example, is a settled issue for most Australians. When an internal meltdown brewed recently, Dutton quickly moved to shut it down. This is proof enough that he understands the serious risks.
Dutton is testing the waters. He’s playing electoral limbo, assessing the flexibility of the electorate to accept a more conservative direction for Australia. How low will he go?
Dutton’s current gambit is that a populist pitch on nuclear, migration and cost of living will capture the attention of disillusioned and disengaged voters enough to more than counterweight his losses elsewhere.
These are voters who don’t watch closely, but still expect results from the incumbent government when they are struggling – as they are now.
For this type of voter, the details of promises, policies and headline economic figures are not even heard. They want to notice results at the hip pocket. They just need a glimmer of hope that Dutton could deliver something tangible and will happily give him a red-hot go. They will have to turn up and vote after all.
Nuclear technology that doesn’t exist, a pledge to return to the Howard-era economy, promises of tougher border policies: These Trump-style “concepts of a plan” will be enough. Many voters like the concept, and are too busy, poor or overwhelmed to think about the plan.
But Australia is not America, and Dutton knows it. He calculates that if he doesn’t cross an invisible line, near-Trump-style rhetoric and bold promises without detail will bring him closer to a position of trust with the electorate than the steady incremental progress currently favoured by Labor does.
The more important question isn’t whether Dutton will go full Trump, but whether he can successfully apply it to our different electoral system. It’s not to imitate the man but to find the policies and rhetoric that can capture the fleeting attention of Australia’s disengaged.
Of course, efforts to tackle the disillusionment of people struggling with cost of living are open to all political parties. Those who fear a Dutton government should worry less about full-Trump Dutton, and talk more about the simple policies that can deliver far better and more immediate outcomes than his concepts of a plan.
Peter Stahel is managing director and co-owner of Essential, a progressive research and communications company, and a former Greens adviser.
